You made an excellent post. If you are committed to the success of Bitcoin because it is an open, honest, just, decentralized, permissionless, monetary system-then I am with you completely. I want and support a currency with those qualities.
If you are a Die-hard Bitcoiner because you believe its blockchain is immutable or that no country can control the Bitcoin network, then you are likely to share my disappointment, because such qualities are lacking in Bitcoin. The entire Bitcoin blockchain is quite controllable. The U.S. government, in cooperation with a few others, can control all Bitcoin transactions almost effortlessly.
To assume that Bitcoin’s progress must continue as it has from its birth until today is to believe in the Turkey fallacy, which has been described by fellow Medium.com writer, Joe Kelly. -A young Turkey is likely to grow steadily -until the Thanksgiving feast.
Those who bet their future on steady progress for Bitcoin will soon meet the enemy of honest money -their governments. During this decade, (2020’s) the ruling aristocracy will completely Control Bitcoin -most probably during a time of financial crisis. Bitcoin will be controlled because the persons who have the power to direct governments are not honest themselves, nor are they interested in a just monetary system. They will control Bitcoin before it becomes obvious to the general public that Bitcoin outcompetes all Fiat currencies.
Our Pathocratic government will act during this decade because they must. If they do not control Bitcoin, within a few more years, it will become evident to the world that Bitcoin outcompetes all fiat currencies.
There are many forms a Government-sponsored attack can take to control Bitcoin. An entity that controls 51% of the computational power of Bitcoin miners (the hash rate) can control the entire blockchain. The easiest way to control the Bitcoin hash rate is simply to regulate the companies that mine Bitcoin.
Miners choose which transactions to verify. The government can and will regulate the miners by telling them there are some transactions they are not permitted to verify -such as transactions from unregulated exchanges. A coalition of Western governments will jointly enforce such a regulation.
“All Bitcoin transactions confirmed (mined) in this jurisdiction must route through a regulated cryptocurrency exchange.”
One simple regulation will be stunningly effective at controlling the entire Bitcoin network -all transactions, everywhere.
This is true because the majority of the mining hash power can control the entire Bitcoin blockchain. The Bitcoin Code does not recognize a transaction unless it is confirmed on the longest Bitcoin blockchain with the most confirmations. Since a near majority of Bitcoin's computing power (45%) already lies within the borders of the U.S. and Canada. The government only needs to combine the existing North American hash power with that of Western Europe, for Western governments to be able to regulate (control) the majority of Bitcoin hash power.
When more than half of the Bitcoin network’s computational power is regulated to only accept transactions from approved exchanges, the remaining unregulated miners will be unable to confirm transactions -unless they split the Bitcoin blockchain. However, those who split the Bitcoin blockchain into smaller subchains will know they have a smaller, less valuable, and more vulnerable cryptocurrency. And they will have left the vaunted ‘institutional’ investor behind for good.
Meanwhile, the media will assure the public that the actions of the Government are quite limited, are reasonable, and are necessary to ensure the security of the Bitcoin network. The government will tell the public that reasonable regulation of Bitcoin is necessary to the stability of the global financial system.
Outwardly, Bitcoin will not have died. It is only “regulated”. It continues. Unfortunately, the regulated Blockchain will appeal to virtually all of the Institutional users. A regulated Bitcoin will retain the majority of Bitcoin’s value along with the institutional users. Michael Saylor is the largest and most vocal institutional investor of Bitcoin. Michael Saylor frequently advocates for the regulation of Bitcoin. Far from being a champion of Satoshi’s vision, Saylor is promoting the type of actions necessary to enable complete government control of Bitcoin.
Regulating Bitcoin mining will work because the vast majority of Bitcoin is mined by just a dozen licensed corporations.
Of course, some miners will refuse to be regulated. They will correctly see danger in conforming to government regulation and they will choose to move to a non-compliant nation. It won’t matter. The largest mining companies lie in the West and they have the majority of Bitcoin’s computational power (hash rate). Some major mining companies will complain, but they too will comply. It may be that the management of some Bitcoin mining corporations would prefer to move their operations to an unregulated jurisdiction, but they won’t be able to justify the expense of moving and of creating new infrastructure. The owners of Bitcoin mining companies may disagree with the coming regulations, but their investors and the public will see government oversight as ‘reasonable’ and even desirable. Complying with the law is a board of directors’ fiduciary duty to their investors and shareholders. Failure to comply would result in the company swiftly being sued by its investors, or put out of business, (or in prison), by government regulators.
Licensed Bitcoin mining companies will comply with whatever regulation is required of them. The major Bitcoin mining corporations won’t risk their competitive advantage by moving their infrastructure to avoid regulation. Bitcoin miners who refuse to comply will simply fork their subchain into oblivion. The transactions confirmed by the major Western mining corporations will determine the blockchain.
Complete government control of Bitcoin is coming, it will be simple, effortless, and mostly uncontested. Regulation of Bitcoin mining will destroy Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision for Bitcoin. Regulation will destroy the permissionless, and immutable qualities of honest money. It would be wonderful to be wrong, but wishing doesn’t make it so.
Those who want honest money must first create an honest government. Sadly, the world will not get either an honest government or honest money without a fight. Evil is not swayed by public opinion, and evil-minded rulers do not yield their power and privilege in the political process.
Evil can not be voted out of power, we must rise and kill it.